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Resampling, Bootstrap, and Monte Carlo Methods

Manual: General · Subject: Statistics

Use computational resampling to estimate uncertainty, validate models, and build simulation-based inference.

Resampling logic

Bootstrap principle

The bootstrap approximates the sampling distribution of a statistic by repeatedly resampling with replacement from the observed data. If θ^=s(X1,…,Xn)\hat\theta=s(X_1,\dots,X_n), then the bootstrap distribution of θ^∗\hat\theta^* estimates its variability.

Why it works

Bootstrap methods leverage the empirical distribution as a plug-in estimate of the unknown population distribution. They are especially useful when analytic standard errors are difficult to derive.

⚠️

Bootstrap caution

Resampling cannot fix model misspecification, dependence ignored by the resampling scheme, or systematic data collection bias.

Monte Carlo integration and simulation

Randomization-based computation

Monte Carlo methods approximate expectations and probabilities by simulation. For example, E[g(X)]≈1M∑m=1Mg(X(m))\mathbb{E}[g(X)]\approx \frac{1}{M}\sum_{m=1}^M g(X^{(m)}). This underlies Bayesian computation, uncertainty propagation, and randomized algorithms.

What does the nonparametric bootstrap approximate?

Why is Monte Carlo error important to report?

Advanced resampling methods

Variants and refinements

The jackknife, subsampling, wild bootstrap, block bootstrap, and parametric bootstrap address different settings such as heteroskedasticity, dependence, and time series.

When to use which

Jackknife
Fast bias and variance estimation, especially for smooth statistics.
Wild bootstrap
Heteroskedastic regression errors.
Block bootstrap
Dependent time series or spatial data.
Parametric bootstrap
When a fitted parametric model is credible and cheap to simulate from.

Which bootstrap variant is commonly used for dependent time series?

What is one advantage of the bootstrap over asymptotic formulas?