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Likelihood, Exponential Families, and Information Geometry

Manual: General · Subject: Statistics

Study likelihood-based inference, canonical models, and the geometric structure of statistical information.

Likelihood as a Unifying Principle

Maximum likelihood estimation

Maximum likelihood estimation solves θ^MLE=arg⁡max⁡θ∈Θℓ(θ)\hat\theta_{\text{MLE}}=\arg\max_{\theta\in\Theta} \ell(\theta), where ℓ(θ)=log⁡L(θ;x)\ell(\theta)=\log L(\theta;x). Under regularity conditions, MLEs are consistent, asymptotically normal, and asymptotically efficient.

Score and information

The score is U(θ)=∂ℓ(θ)/∂θU(\theta)=\partial \ell(\theta)/\partial \theta. The expected Fisher information is I(θ)=E[−∂2ℓ(θ)/∂θ2]I(\theta)=\mathbb{E}\left[-\partial^2 \ell(\theta)/\partial \theta^2\right]. In regular models, the Cramér-Rao lower bound states that for unbiased estimators Var(θ^)≥I(θ)−1\mathrm{Var}(\hat\theta)\ge I(\theta)^{-1}.

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Asymptotic normality

Under suitable conditions, n(θ^−θ0)→dN(0,I(θ0)−1)\sqrt{n}(\hat\theta-\theta_0)\overset{d}{\to}N\left(0, I(\theta_0)^{-1}\right).

Exponential Families

Canonical form

A full exponential family has density f(x∣η)=h(x)exp⁡{ηTT(x)−A(η)}f(x\mid \eta)=h(x)\exp\{\eta^T T(x)-A(\eta)\}. Here T(x)T(x) is a sufficient statistic, η\eta is the natural parameter, and A(η)A(\eta) is the log-partition function.

Why exponential families matter

Sufficiency
They admit low-dimensional statistics preserving all information about η\eta.
Convexity
The log-partition function is convex, aiding optimization.
Duality
Mean and natural parameters are linked by Legendre-type transforms.
Breadth
Gaussian, Poisson, Bernoulli, multinomial, and many GLMs fit here.

In an exponential family, what is often sufficient for the parameter?

What is the role of the log-partition function A(η)A(\eta)?

Information geometry

Curvature of model spaces

Information geometry interprets statistical models as manifolds equipped with the Fisher metric. This perspective helps explain efficiency, dual connections, and the geometry of estimation and divergence minimization.

Which divergence is most directly linked to the geometry of likelihood-based fitting?