Likelihood, Exponential Families, and Information Geometry
Likelihood as a Unifying Principle
Maximum likelihood estimation
Maximum likelihood estimation solves , where . Under regularity conditions, MLEs are consistent, asymptotically normal, and asymptotically efficient.
Score and information
The score is . The expected Fisher information is . In regular models, the Cramér-Rao lower bound states that for unbiased estimators .
Asymptotic normality
Under suitable conditions, .
Exponential Families
Canonical form
A full exponential family has density . Here is a sufficient statistic, is the natural parameter, and is the log-partition function.
Why exponential families matter
In an exponential family, what is often sufficient for the parameter?
Exponential families are notable because they often admit finite-dimensional sufficient statistics.
Correct answer: A carefully chosen statistic
What is the role of the log-partition function ?
Differentiating yields mean and covariance structure in many models.
Correct answer: It normalizes the density and encodes moments and cumulants of the sufficient statistic.
Information geometry
Curvature of model spaces
Information geometry interprets statistical models as manifolds equipped with the Fisher metric. This perspective helps explain efficiency, dual connections, and the geometry of estimation and divergence minimization.
Which divergence is most directly linked to the geometry of likelihood-based fitting?
Maximum likelihood and many variational methods can be understood through Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization.
Correct answer: Kullback-Leibler divergence